Q1 2026 Delivery Consensus
Please find below the latest company-compiled delivery consensus of sell-side analysts. Tesla does not endorse any information, recommendations or conclusions made by the analysts. Q4-2025 represents actual figures while Q1-2026 onwards represents company-compiled consensus estimates.
Estimates provided by: Daiwa, DB, Cowen, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, GS, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Mizuho, BofA, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Truist, UBS, Jefferies, JPM, Needham & Co, HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, William Blair
| Q4-2025 | Q1-2026 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |
| Model 3/Y deliveries | 406,585 | 351,179 | 1,623,697 | 1,742,498 | 1,867,254 | 2,159,874 | 2,426,452 |
| All other models | 11,642 | 13,946 | 60,685 | 131,509 | 240,229 | 423,599 | 570,590 |
| Total deliveries | 418,227 | 365,645 | 1,689,691 | 1,880,496 | 2,128,187 | 2,613,623 | 3,032,000 |
| Median | 418,227 | 363,371 | 1,678,900 | 1,866,273 | 1,979,348 | 2,384,678 | 2,626,100 |
| Standard deviation | 25,941 | 85,769 | 203,762 | 409,565 | 656,881 | 826,093 | |
| Number of estimates provided | 23 | 23 | 23 | 20 | 13 | 13 | |
| Energy Storage Deployments (GWh) | 14.2 | 14.4 | 65.2 | 88.1 | 112.5 | 139.1 | 166.1 |
| Median | 14.2 | 14.3 | 64.6 | 87.3 | 114.1 | 138.2 | 169.1 |
| Standard deviation | 1.3 | 5.2 | 10.6 | 16.8 | 25.0 | 31.1 | |
| Number of estimates provided | 18 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 10 | 10 |