Q4 2025 Delivery Consensus
Please find below the latest company-compiled delivery consensus of sell-side analysts. Tesla does not endorse any information, recommendations or conclusions made by the analysts. Q3-2025 represents actual figures while Q4-2025 onwards represents company-compiled consensus estimates.
Estimates provided by: Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, OpCo, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, GS, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Jefferies, Needham & Co, HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, William Blair
| Q3-2025 | Q4-2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
| Model 3/Y deliveries | 481,166 | 388,002 | 1,509,460 | 1,566,724 | 1,703,578 | 1,872,812 | 2,327,902 |
| All other models | 15,933 | 34,848 | 131,292 | 183,519 | 306,880 | 477,639 | 691,999 |
| Total deliveries | 497,099 | 422,850 | 1,640,752 | 1,750,243 | 2,010,459 | 2,350,451 | 3,019,902 |
| Median | 420,399 | 1,638,301 | 1,743,856 | 1,900,000 | 2,111,033 | 2,933,198 | |
| Standard deviation | 21,959 | 21,959 | 107,729 | 297,891 | 641,401 | 937,686 | |
| Number of estimates provided | 20 | 20 | 20 | 17 | 16 | 11 | |
| Energy Storage Deployments (GWh) | 12.5 | 13.4 | 45.9 | 63.9 | 87.7 | 112.5 | 141.8 |
| Median | 13.2 | 45.7 | 62.1 | 86.6 | 115.7 | 140.3 | |
| Standard deviation | 1.3 | 1.3 | 7.0 | 13.2 | 18.9 | 26.2 | |
| Number of estimates provided | 16 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 8 |