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Q4 2025 Earnings Consensus

Please find below the latest company-compiled earnings consensus estimates of sell-side analysts. Tesla does not endorse any information, recommendations or conclusions made by the analysts. Q4-2025 and 2026 data represent company-compiled consensus estimates.


Estimates provided by: Cowen, Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, GS, Evercore ISI, JPM, Mizuho, Piper Sandler, Truist, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, UBS, HSBC, William Blair

 
  Q4-2025   2026
P&L Average Median St. Deviation # of Inputs   Average Median St. Deviation # of Inputs
Automotive 17,292 17,273 556 19   71,658 70,335 5,804 19
Energy generation and storage 3,825 3,833 312 19   17,818 17,751 1,966 19
Services and other 3,376 3,419 172 19   14,671 14,553 832 19
Total revenues 24,493 24,519 649 19   104,148 104,571 5,523 19
COGS -20,341 -20,414 598 19   -86,148 -86,274 3,934 19
Gross profit 4,152 4,159 180 19   18,000 18,044 1,975 19
Gross margin 17.0% 17.0% 0.7% 19   17.2% 17.6% 1.2% 19
Operating Expenses GAAP -3,099 -3,111 175 19   -12,532 -12,630 535 19
Income (loss) from operations 1,053 972 261 19   5,468 5,592 2,084 19
Operating margin 4.3% 4.1% 1.1% 19   5.2% 5.5% 1.7% 19
Interest and other 358 342 81 19   1,399 1,376 332 19
Income (loss) before income taxes 1,411 1,373 288 19   6,867 7,183 2,155 19
Taxes -343 -351 73 19   -1,562 -1,529 501 19
Net income (loss) 1,068 1,099 240 19   5,305 5,387 1,715 19
Net income (loss) attributable to NCI and redeemable NCI 16 15 10 19   64 60 45 19
Net income (loss) attributable to common stockholders 1,052 1,049 240 19   5,241 5,327 1,702 19
Share count (diluted) 3,554 3,530 65 19   3,559 3,538 46 19
EPS - GAAP 0.30 0.30 0.07 19   1.47 1.50 0.48 19
Total SBC, net of tax 518 500 79 17   2,168 2,024 348 17
Digital assets gain (loss), net of tax -19 0 63 17   -63 0 250 17
EPS - non-GAAP 0.44 0.43 0.06 17   2.03 2.10 0.36 17
                   
Cash Flow and Energy Average Median St. Deviation # of Inputs   Average Median St. Deviation # of Inputs
Operating CF 3,162 2,926 1,088 17   13,838 14,057 1,715 17
Capex -2,812 -2,866 631 17   -10,895 -11,000 1,160 17
FCF 350 84 1,215 17   2,943 3,074 2,175 17
Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities 43,530 42,037 5,409 16   46,530 44,738 6,476 16
                   
Energy GWh           65.1 64.3 8 14
                   
Other Models deliveries           84,331 50,850 68,216 18
Model 3/Y deliveries           1,632,516 1,645,006 111,496 18
Total deliveries           1,722,932 1,739,892 105,639 19